Is the energy system of Ukraine ready for abnormal heat and what are the threats to its operation?

The Ukrainian energy system passed the first month of the summer of 2026 in a relatively stable, but still vulnerable state. The summer season turned out to be easier than the winter season due to the lack of electric heating.

How the energy industry managed to withstand the June loads, what is the current state of the Ukrainian energy system and where are its weak points, UNN discussed together with experts.

What is the state of Ukraine’s energy system after the beginning of summer

At the beginning of the summer, the Ukrainian energy system worked in a balancing mode between its own generation, imports, repairs and the risk of new attacks.

On the one hand, solar power plants produce more in the warm season, and the need for heat is lower. But these factors do not eliminate shortages that may occur during peak hours or in certain regions.

Electricity market analyst of the ExPro agency Daria Orlova in a conversation with UNN noted that the first month of summer, the power system went well: the outages that occurred were mostly regional and related to attacks or accidents.

If we talk about how we passed the first month, I rate it not bad. As we can see, the outages were only regional, where there were strikes or some kind of accident at the objects, but the energy companies restored the operation of these objects quite quickly

At the same time, Oleg Popenko, an expert in the field of energy and the head of the Union of Utilities Consumers, in an exclusive comment UNN focused on the following:

“Even if there is a certain amount of electricity in the system, it does not guarantee a stable supply in all areas. Some generation is lost, some is under repair, and networks in many regions are damaged or overloaded.”

Popenko explained that now Ukraine partially covers the peak load, but not only through domestic generation, but also by importing electricity.

Kyiv imports electricity from Moldova, Romania, Slovakia, Hungary and Poland. According to the expert, the largest volumes come from Slovakia and Hungary. However, imports cannot completely replace the destroyed Ukrainian shunting generation, especially if the heat increases consumption in Europe itself.

Against this background, the European Union is unable to completely cover our electricity needs

Generation and capacities of the domestic energy system: what Ukraine has now

The domestic energy system relies on nuclear, thermal, hydro and renewable generation. Nuclear power plants provide basic production, but are not a tool for quickly covering peak loads. For this, thermal power plants, thermal power plants, hydroelectric power stations and hydroelectric power plants are needed. It is these capacities that have suffered the most from the attacks and at the same time are most needed during the hours of a sharp increase in consumption.

According to expert Daria Orlova, the nuclear power generation is trying to optimize repairs in order to work as stably as possible during periods of the greatest heat.

The nuclear power generation optimized its repairs in such a way that it would be more stable through the summer and work with a larger team during periods of the greatest heat

At the same time, the repair campaign at the NPP remains one of the factors that reduce the supply of electricity on the market. And the peak of repairs falls precisely on June-July.

July will be the peak of the repair campaign at nuclear power plants. Accordingly, the overall supply of electricity on the market is decreasing, while consumption is increasing at the same time

Expert Oleh Popenko, for his part, drew attention not only to the volume of production, but also to the limited possibilities of transferring electricity to the consumer.

The problem is different: even with the existing generation of nuclear plants, it must be somehow transferred to the consumer. Now we must also talk about the possibility of transferring it

What is the current state of heat and hydropower generation in Ukraine

According to experts, the most difficult situation remains with heat and hydro generation. The TPP and TPP were repeatedly attacked by Russian drones and missiles. Some of the objects are destroyed, some are damaged, some are working after repairs or with restrictions.

Daria Orlova, answering this question, noted that repairs are ongoing not only at nuclear plants, but also at thermal generation. It is often about emergency restoration work after winter damage.

The repair campaign continues at other generation facilities, in particular at thermal power stations and thermal power plants. Moreover, these are, as a rule, emergency repairs after damage this winter, and, accordingly, not all capacities are currently available to us either

Oleg Popenko assessed the state of thermal generation as one of the most problematic at the moment.

Thermal generation is a huge pile of problems. Most of our thermal power plants have been destroyed

Hydroelectric plants also remain critical to balancing the power system. They help cover the peak load, but are themselves regularly at risk of attacks. After the destruction of the Kakhovskaya HPP, Ukraine lost an important element of the system. Other hydroelectric power stations remain at risk of new shocks or operate after damage and repairs.

We also have an important factor – hydroelectric power plants. Unfortunately, they are most often now, as I observe, under attack from the enemy, especially in Zaporizhzhia, in more eastern regions, if viewed from Kyiv. And they are important for the power system, because they cover the peak load

In turn, the head of the Union of Utilities Consumers added that a significant part of hydro generation is in limited access.

Most of the hydro generation in our country either does not work or is undergoing major repairs

What is happening with Ukrainian renewable energy

In summer, renewable energy plays a more prominent role, primarily thanks to solar power plants. They produce the most electricity during the day, when there is sun, and can partially maintain the balance of the system.

Darya Orlova emphasized that it is solar generation that helps Ukraine during the day, and in certain periods even creates an opportunity for the export of electricity.

Renewable energy sources play a very important role now. We have enough solar power plants, wind power plants are actively being built. And the sun now, during the daytime hours when it is produced, takes a certain share even in the energy balance. And it is through solar generation that we can even export electricity

However, Oleg Popenko was more critical. He emphasized that the RES potential is limited by the state of networks. Some of the facilities are located in temporarily occupied territories or disabled due to enemy shelling. Another problem is that it is not always technically possible to transfer the produced electricity to the final consumer.

The problem is that we do not have enough grids to transfer this electricity to the end user. We pay for this electricity, but the consumer does not see it

According to him, last year Ukraine paid a lot of money for electricity from RES, which was actually not consumed due to the impossibility of its transmission.

Last year, we paid UAH 2 billion for electricity that no one consumed, because we could not transfer it to the final consumer

Therefore, RES can be part of the solution to the shortage problem, but they will not completely replace thermal, hydro or distributed generation. For a full effect, networks, energy storage, the correct placement of new capacities and the ability to balance the system in the evening are needed.

How repairs and preparation of electrical networks take place

Preparation for the next heating season includes generation repairs, restoration of substations, increased protection of facilities, accumulation of equipment, preparation of networks for peak load and development of distributed generation.

Orlova drew attention to the fact that after the attacks, the state of generation and the protection of electricity transmission and distribution facilities are important.

Here it is necessary to talk not only about the generation, but also about the facilities of Ukrenergo, which is the operator of the transmission system, and the facilities of local oblastenergo and their protection. If Ukrenergo and local oblastenergo provide protection for their substations, then, of course, the situation of the system will be better

According to her, generation companies have also adapted defenses based on what weapons Russia has used in previous attacks.

They saw what the blows were, what weapons were used, and also adjusted their defenses to prevent the most negative consequences of the blows

Oleg Popenko also believes that those responsible for the state of domestic power grids made some conclusions after the previous attacks, but considers them insufficient.

Partial conclusions have been drawn. Still, if we go back to 2022, then it was decided to build shelters for substations. But whether the conclusions were drawn completely – it is difficult for me to say, because I do not see it. We have not resolved the issue of fully sheltering our electricity transmission and distribution facilities. We have not solved the problems with unprofitability and with the management of the most important energy facilities. We have huge problems with financing, there is not enough gas, there are problems with importing gas

The development of decentralized generation and energy storage systems became a separate area of ​​preparation for energy sustainability in Ukraine. This is especially important for industry seeking to reduce reliance on a centralized system.

Many began to actively develop decentralized generation, to build new, smaller facilities. This is especially relevant for industry when they are building gas generation. Yes, it may not be cheap in terms of electricity production, because they now buy gas on the market, but they choose to be more energy independent

There is also growing interest in energy storage systems, which can help balance the system between daytime surplus solar generation and evening peak consumption, she said.

Such a boom is currently observed in energy storage systems. This is a cool story for the summer as well, because you can actually pump the excess electricity produced during the day into the battery, and later use it in the evening when the sun goes down, but the demand for electricity increases

Is Ukraine’s energy system ready for the heat test: what Ukrenergo and the relevant ministry say

The official positions of “Ukrenergo” and the Ministry of Energy remain cautious.

“Ukrenergo” emphasizes that the situation in the energy system can change during the day, and consumers need to follow Oblenergo’s messages. The company also called for shifting the use of powerful electrical appliances to daytime hours and reducing consumption in the evening.

The Ministry of Energy, on the other hand, emphasized restoration of damaged generation, international aid, supply of energy equipment, development of distributed capacities and protection of critical nodes. The government announced plans to restore part of the damaged capacity and build new generation closer to the consumer.

Interlocutor UNN Darya Orlova believes that system solutions regarding tariffs and meters are needed to reduce the load. We are talking about incentives that will motivate consumers to use less electricity during peak hours.

I would talk about the transition, perhaps even to three-zone meters: at night, electricity is cheaper, during the day it is the same as according to the tariff, and in peak hours, this is the morning and evening peak, it is more expensive by some factor. And this money story gives more incentives to people to save electricity during peak hours

At the same time, the analyst emphasized that it is impossible to quickly implement such a reform.

This already requires a reform approach, and you won’t do it in one or two days, you won’t change all the meters. Therefore, here are just appeals to the population that it is important to consume less electricity during peak hours, not to turn on all devices at once. This is a classic story, it applies to all watches

Oleg Popenko, for his part, believes that the state’s plans should be evaluated taking into account real limitations. It is easier to restore a unit or a substation on paper than to return it to stable operation at the risk of new shocks. In addition, the key issue is the delivery of electricity to the final consumer.

There are enough problems. But we see a positive movement in certain directions and we see its absence in others

We will remind

Earlier UNN wrote about the fact that due to attacks by the Russian Federation and repairs to the nuclear power plant, an energy deficit of up to 2.4 GW is expected in the summer. In the heat and new destructions, the power shortage can reach 40%.