NATO countries are still trying to avoid a confrontation with Russia, some of them do not want to provide long-range weapons to Ukraineand those who provided such weapons do not give permission to strike them deep into Russia. They explain that this could lead to an open conflict between the Western bloc and Moscow. But a number of political scientists, journalists and military experts draw attention to the fact that Russia is already waging a covert war against NATO, and in the very The North Atlantic Alliance does not yet realize this. This is reported by the Voice of America.
At the hearings of the Helsinki Commission, which took place on September 24 in the US Congress, experts together with American lawmakers discussed what can be countered by Russia’s subversive operations in the West, and how not to give in to Russia’s blackmail regarding Ukraine and thus not enable “Russia’s genocidal invasion of Ukraine”.
Pidrivnand operationsof Russia
There is nothing hidden in what Russia is doing against the West, he believes Michael Weissan American investigative journalist who specializes in Russia and has worked with a number of influential publications, and is currently the editor of The Insider, an online Russian investigative and disinformation project.
“What Russia has been doing on the territory of NATO and the EU for the past 20 years is war,” Weiss is convinced. He cites dozens of examples of subversive operations carried out by Russian agents abroad – murders, poisonings, organization of explosions, interference in elections, sabotage. He notes that the Kremlin does not hide those who are considered criminals in the West, and promotes them on the career ladder, gives them high positions in the Russian authorities and even rewards them with diplomatic positions.
Weiss says that Ukraine has always been at the center of these Russian efforts, and it did not start in 2022 with the start of full-scale aggression, not in 2014, when Russia occupied Crimea, but back in 2011, when Russia began preparing an attack on Ukraine.
He recalled the poisoning of a former FSB and KGB officer Oleksandr Litvinenko in London by FBS employees, one of whom was later elected to the Russian State Duma.
This is the Russian military intelligence unit GRU 29155. According to law enforcement officers, they blew up weapons warehouses in Bulgaria (2011) and the Czech Republic (2014), which were intended for Georgia and Ukraine. And later they poisoned the weapons manufacturer “Novacch”, which was later used against them Serhiy Skripal and his daughters in Salisbury.
Due to the fact that many European countries imposed sanctions on Russian citizens and restricted their travel, expelled many spies who operated under the cover of embassies, it became more difficult for GRU agents to conduct operations in Europe. Therefore, says Weiss, Russia is increasingly using citizens of NATO countries, who are recruited from a distance through social networks, and who are ready to act against their countries for little money.
Murders, arson, bombings, sabotage operations will still need to be documented
The journalist, who also has experience working in the Middle East, says that this is a tactic of non-state terrorist organizations such as the Islamic State. Setting fire to a supermarket in Warsaw, a warehouse of an IKEA furniture store in Vilnius, or a bus station in the Czech Republic can cost only 400 euros, which the performer, among whom there are many teenagers, will receive in cryptocurrency, Weiss notes.
Based on these and a number of other facts, Weiss says that despite their number, there is nothing new in these operations – the Soviet Union has been doing it since its foundation, trying to undermine European states. Only the technology has changed, says the expert. In his opinion, the West is not fully aware of these threats, largely due to the fact that not all operations have been disclosed.
“The scary thing is not what we know they did, but what we know they did — the murders, the arsons, the bombings, the sabotage operations that have yet to be documented,” Weiss says.
Answering the senator’s question Tina Smith from Minnesota on how Russia is influencing public opinion in the West to reduce support for Ukraine, Weiss noted that some governments are afraid to reveal the true extent of these operations to their citizens, so as not to scare the Western public with threats to themselves.
As for Russian influence in the election, recent government revelations, including that Russia is working through American citizens, will have a positive effect in countering Russian influence, according to Weiss.
Energy sabotage in Europe, destruction of the energy system in Ukraine
Benjamin Schmitta former adviser to the State Department on European energy security, says that before the start of the war against Ukraine, and especially its current stage with Russia’s attempt to destroy the country’s energy system, few people in the West realized the extent to which energy is Russia’s weapon against the West.
He says the West should give Ukraine weapons and permission to use them to protect Ukraine’s power plants and distribution network, and he believes there should be hearings in the U.S. Congress so U.S. lawmakers learn what methods the Kremlin is using to to sow panic in the West and undermine support for Ukraine.
A senior fellow at the University of Pennsylvania’s Kleinman Center for Energy Policy says he is leading a project studying how Russia is undermining the EU’s energy system already and what it plans to do in the future.
In particular, he says one of the cases his team is studying was the rupture of an underwater fiber-optic cable near a Norwegian island near the North Pole in January 2022.
A Russian trawler is believed to be responsible for severing a vital underwater fiber-optic cable that carried satellite data
At that time, a Russian fishing trawler passed by the island of Svalbard, which the Russians call Spitsbergen, and it is believed to have damaged the underwater fiber-optic cable that connected the island to the mainland and transmitted important satellite data that Ukraine needed after the Russian attack on it in February of the same year. Norwegian police said after an investigation that it was human intervention and most likely an act of sabotage.
“A Russian fishing trawler is believed to be responsible for severing a vital underwater fiber-optic cable that was transmitting commercial satellite data from a ground station to the European mainland, commercial data that would prove critical to the defense of Ukraine just weeks later,” Schmitt said. .
He also noted that the incident also underscored the Kremlin’s renewed maritime doctrine of using so-called commercial or research vessels for espionage and sabotage off European shores.
Schmitt also mentioned other cases that he studied, among them the explosion of the Balticconnector gas pipeline connecting Finland and Estonia in October 2023. At the time, a Chinese-flagged Russian ship accompanied by a nuclear-powered icebreaker was also present at the rupture site, pulling anchor for several kilometers to sever telecommunications cables and damage the gas pipeline.
The researcher also visited the site of the hotly debated Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline explosion, but evidence found earlier, Schmitt says, contradicts some current narratives. According to the versions announced recently, responsibility for blowing up the gas station lies with the Ukrainian command.
And the last – a very recent case – military drones were spotted near the Brunsbüttel industrial park, which contains, among other things, a liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal, which was connected to the grid in early 2023, after Germany, due to the Russian war in Ukraine, stopped buying Russian gas, which was supplied by pipelines.
The researcher says that these cases are only the most famous among dozens of other acts of sabotage in which the Russian regime is suspected, and which, according to Schmitt, require retaliatory actions on the part of NATO.
In his opinion, the fact that they are now happening in Europe should not lull Americans’ vigilance. Such acts of sabotage, in which the Russians will blame the Americans themselves, or militants from the Middle East, may very quickly happen in the United States. The Russians have already shown that they can find the necessary people for this at a distance.
He is convinced that Congress must support a proposal for action to stop Moscow’s destructive actions and signal that there will never be a return to “business as usual.”
First, NATO countries should invoke Article 4 of the NATO Treaty, which allows for consultations to respond to acts of sabotage by Russia, or carried out at its behest.
Schmitt also suggests that Congress extend the sanctions imposed in connection with the construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, which expire this year.
In addition, the former State Department official believes that Congress should prohibit American government officials from working for Russian energy companies after leaving the government service.
Such actions are deliberate actions that demonstrate that Russia considers itself to be at war with the West
And finally, Congress should support allowing Ukraine to use long-range weapons to strike deep into Russia to prevent the destruction of Ukrainian infrastructure.
In response to a warning from one of the senators Emanuel Cleavera Democrat from the state of Missouri, about whether such assistance would lead to Russian strikes on NATO countries, Schmitt replied that the Ukrainians had long ago crossed all imaginary red lines, and that delaying the authorization to defend itself would only lead to more losses and destruction in Ukraine .
The best countermeasure to misinformation is open communication
Erkki Torithe Estonian prime minister’s national security adviser, who also testified at the Helsinki Commission hearing, said that his country has been the target of Russian covert operations for several decades. The arsenal of Russian sabotage includes attacks on people and property, in particular on the Minister of the Estonian government.
“Such actions (in Estonia and other European countries) should not be dismissed as petty or isolated hooliganism. They are deliberate actions that demonstrate that Russia considers itself at war with the West,” Tory says, and not responding to these actions means that Russia will continue and escalate its actions.
We must also take countermeasures to hold Russia accountable
The response of NATO countries can be individual, regional and collective within the borders of the EU and NATO, and not necessarily symmetrical, says Tory. But every country must increase vigilance and defense spending. His country now spends more than 3.5% on strengthening its defenses and deterring Russia.
“Our joint strategy should be based on three points – recognition, evaluation and attribution. We must also take countermeasures to bring Russia to justice,” said the advisor to the Estonian prime minister, adding that recognizing and naming those responsible for Russian subversive actions is a key element of this countermeasure, as it will mean that Russian actions will not go unpunished.
Among joint actions, Estonia proposed a hybrid regime of sanctions that could be adopted by European countries and restrictions on diplomatic accreditations.
As an Estonian government official says, from his country’s experience, the best countermeasure to disinformation is open communication, public discussion of topics that divide public opinion.
The United States and NATO have sought to avoid direct confrontation with Russia by stipulating Ukraine’s use of military aid, including severely limiting its use of long-range weapons for strikes on Russian territory. Yet Russia is already waging a shadow war against the democratic world, using assassinations, election interference and sabotage to destabilize NATO and undermine the security and values of the transatlantic alliance.
The escalation of these actions is particularly alarming, as Kremlin-led operations target critical energy infrastructure and defense industries in NATO countries.
In addition, Russia has shown an increasing willingness to engage in military provocations within NATO’s borders, including airspace violations and aggressive exercises near Estonia. The Russian government operates on a military basis and is not created for good faith diplomatic interaction.
At the hearings in the US Congress, the scale of Russian hybrid warfare tactics, its impact on NATO security, and research into strategies for effectively countering these threats were also considered.
