will the Kursk operation help return captured territories to Ukraine?

What do the statements of the Russian authorities about the impossibility of peace negotiations mean against the background of the events in Kurshchyna? To what extent can this affect the occupied territories of southern Ukraine? How can the situation in the Kursk region develop, and what goals does Ukraine pursue? Read about all this in the material of the Radio Liberty project “News of Azov”.

There will be no negotiations with Ukraine until the “complete defeat of the enemy”, the Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of Russia said last week Dmitry Medvedev. He believes that Russia may have fallen into a “negotiation trap” recently. He called the peace talks themselves “early, unnecessary, with unclear prospects and consequences.” At the same time, Medvedev added that after the start of the military operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk region, there will be no negotiations until the complete defeat of the enemy.

A similar statement was previously made by the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia Sergey Lavrov. According to him, the president of Russia Vladimir Putin said that “there can be no talk of any negotiations with Kyiv after the invasion of the Kursk region.”

The President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, recently expressed readiness for a diplomatic settlement of the war. He specifically said this in an interview with the Indian media. However, the president stressed that this should not happen at the cost of territorial concessions and harm to the population. Zelenskyi also noted that the operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk region is part of a large military-diplomatic operation. Everything is being done to force Russia to be ready for a just peace, added the President of Ukraine.

Kherson region: has the military of the Russian Federation decreased?

Deputy director of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies Sergey Danilovwho studies the situation in Kherson Oblast, told “News of Azov” that a tangible consequence of the operation in Kursk Oblast was the reduction of the number of Russian troops in the occupied part of Kherson Oblast.

“Locals tell me that the shops are empty. The traitors who dealt with them are unhappy, because the buyers have disappeared, the people who bought something from them have disappeared. It is clearly visible that reserves were transferred to the Kursk region, in particular or primarily from the Kherson region. The same 810th Marine Infantry Battalion, which before that fought on Krynk and generally on the Dnieper Islands, was now brought to Kurshchyna. Similarly, other rear units, those who were in the restored after heavy battles in different regions, on different parts of the front, who were quartered in Henichesk, Skadovsk, Chaplinka, and in these areas,” he noted.

Given the hostilities and Russia’s occupation of parts of the southern territories of Ukraine, the editors cannot obtain official confirmation of some of the statements made or independently verify them.

“Now without compulsion to negotiate”

The fate of the occupied territories of southern Ukraine may well depend on the success of the Kursk military operation, the expert believes. However, he also points to the risk of this operation.

“She can be both super successful and extremely dangerous. In case it is super successful, this will directly affect the situation and the fate of the occupied territories in the south in the Kherson and Zaporizhia regions. Because this will definitely be one of the points on which they will talk when the time comes and when we talk about the battle line,” Danilov noted.

In addition, the Kursk operation stopped attempts to force Ukraine to negotiate with Russia, he added.

“The result of these negotiations would be a truce, for example, with the fixation of the current front line. And for the occupied territories in the south, in the Kherson region, this is a chance that they will be liberated and we do not go to the armistice without the liberation of Kherson Oblast. They think that they are doing us a favor by going to some negotiations. It is clear that there will be no peace. Even if there are negotiations, there will be a cease-fire or an armistice, one of those two options, it means that we do not agree with the current front line. If there are suitable conditions, the entire Kherson region will be freed,” the expert is convinced.

“Positive signal”

Candidate of Sociological Sciences, Associate Professor of the Department of Philosophy and Sociology of Mariupol State University Oleksandr Zubchenko told “News of Azov” that the actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk region became a powerful signal for the residents of all occupied regions.

“Great a positive signal to tens, hundreds, thousands of our fellow citizens in the occupied territories – both in those territories that have been captured since 2014, and in the lands that were captured by the Russian aggressors after February 24, 2022. A signal that Ukraine exists, Ukraine is strong, Ukraine is fighting and winning, as well as the fact that Ukraine has not forgotten them. That is, it is a powerful, very emotional message. This is a powerful signal and for tens of thousands of our former fellow citizens who betrayed Ukraine, it is such a wake-up call for collaborators. The fact that since Russia does not need its fellow citizens, whom the local authorities abandoned in the border settlements of Kurshchyna, they do not need these traitors all the more,” he pointed out.

The events in Kurshchyna brought the war to a new level, the expert believes. However, in his opinion, Russia will try to the last to consolidate the occupation regime in the captured territories.

“They launch such medium-term long-term projects for the formation of this collaborative culture among young people. In other words, even there there are entire families of collaborators – the father is the so-called chairman of the village council, the mother is the director of the club, the son is the leader of all Russian youth in the school. That is, they try to play the long game, including directly changing the structure of the population. This process is particularly active in Mariupol. There are changes in the composition of the population, they are being implemented, and today, unfortunately, we hear more and more often from people that in Berdyansk, on the embankment or in the center of Melitopol, very few familiar local faces remain. Strangers, strangers prevail,” he noted.

“Military-political operation”

Head of security programs of the Center for Global Studies “Strategy XXI” Pavlo Lakiychuk noted that the Ukrainian operation in the Kursk region has both military and political goals. The first component is an attempt by the Ukrainian command to withdraw the enemy’s reserves from the Donetsk direction and thus weaken the actions of the occupier in the direction of the main strike, the expert says.

“So far, by and large, we have not achieved this goal. The second component is these are also actions in response to Putin’s buffer or sanitary zone. It was a pre-emptive strike, an attempt to create such a security zone, but not on our territory, but on the territory of the enemy. Well, here the calculation is quite correct. Any military operation has both political and informational goals. In addition, the President of Ukraine called the operation in Kurshchyna not a military one, but a military-political one, which means that the military-political goals that our state sets for itself in this operation are much more important than purely military results,” he explained. he.

In March 2024, the President of the Russian Federation, Volodymyr Putin, said that “a so-called sanitary zone can be created on the territory of Ukraine, which will be difficult for the Ukrainian military to overcome even with the help of foreign-made weapons.”

“Attacks in the south will not stop”

Russia will not stop trying to attack in various areas of the front, including in the south, Lakiychuk believes.

“It’s so pretty ghostly calm because just a few days ago, an escalation began in the Orihiv direction – the Russian command requires offensive actions from all commanders. Depending on the direction and available resources, they are forced to act in this way. So the attempts of attacks, assaults, regardless of the confidence of the Russians in achieving their result, they will continue. Of course, where they have fewer resources, this potential will be less. It is a little quieter in the south compared to the east. In the east, there are also different areas, different degrees of tension. The occupiers are also trying to attack Kharkiv Oblast and Luhansk Oblast, but the Defense Forces of Ukraine in some places are not just harming the enemy in terms of resources and manpower,” he said.

“Putin is not interested in peace”

Russian sociologist and publicist from Germany Ihor Eidman noted that Putin does not need peace, so he is not interested in real negotiations. He called the information about the peace talks between Ukraine and the Russian Federation a “dump” by the Kremlin.

“This was done in order to undermine the internal unity of Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression. The thing is that there were speakers, bloggers and many people who began to seriously discuss all this, started to sway the topic of necessity or inevitability of territorial concessions. On the other hand, many people in Ukraine, Ukrainian patriots, including those who are fighting at the front against Russian aggression, absolutely did not like all this. The idea of ​​Putin’s information sabotage with pseudo-peace talks was to create a split inside the country, and then take all of Ukraine, but, as they say, without huge efforts. There was this plan, and it seemed that it was developing, but in reality, Ukraine probably understood this threat and perhaps even simulated some belief that a peace agreement was possible, but at that time was preparing an offensive on the territory of the Kursk region,” he suggested he.

Eidman considers Ukraine’s offensive in the Kursk region and the disruption of the Kremlin’s special operation to simulate a peaceful settlement of the war as a “positive moment”. Under the current circumstances, when the Ukrainian army is present on Russian territory, even an imitation of peace talks is humiliating for Putin, the expert says.

“Putin will still try to take all of Ukraine in the end, he doesn’t need any half-measures. Well, all these conversations are over. There are probably people in Ukraine who believe that it may be possible to conduct negotiations from a stronger position in the future, but it is impossible to negotiate with Putin either from a weak position or from a strong position,” he emphasizes.

“Losing the war like Hitler”

Eidman is sure that Putin will not give up the occupied regions. In the future, the Russian army will try to continue its offensive on Ukrainian territories, as well as recapture Kurshchyna.

“They have already included the territories they captured in their Constitution as part of Russia. Putin does not know how to retreat. I can’t imagine what he will come out and say in front of the Federation Council, and we have changed our minds here, Russia is not forever with Donbas or Kherson. It won’t happen. As long as Putin is alive, there will be war. There will be a war, for sure. Therefore, it is pointless to hope for any agreements. He will advance on all fronts until he loses the war like Hitler. Here he is simultaneously trying to advance on the Donbas, and at the same time trying to recapture his Kursk region. This situation is the same as it was with Hitler,” the expert noted.

• Russia’s large-scale military invasion of Ukraine has been ongoing since the morning of February 24, 2022.
• Russia denied that it was waging a war of aggression against Ukraine and called it a “special operation.” The Russian authorities also deny that they are committing crimes against civilian residents of Ukraine.