According to Ukrainian intelligence, Russian President Putin twice set his army a time frame for capturing the entire territory of the Donetsk region: first, by the fall of 2022; then by March 1, 2023. Neither the first nor the second plan came true. The progress of Russian troops in the Donbass since the beginning of July 2022, when Lysychansk was taken (which means that the entire Luhansk region is occupied), amounted to a few kilometers; in September 2022, the aggressor's troops began to retreat; only in January 2023 they managed to capture the small town of Soledar, and by May – most of Bakhmut, where, according to the conclusions of the British Ministry of Defense, the Russian Federation lost one soldier for every 48 centimeters of territory; and by the end of February 2024 – Avdeevka. Since May 2023, the Defense Forces of Ukraine have been conducting offensive operations in the Bakhmut direction, and since June 2023 they have also broken through the southern front – at the junction of the Donetsk and Zaporozhye regions. However, since October 2023, the Russian Federation has again gone on the attack and is currently pressing on the east on three fronts: Avdeevsk, Kupyansk-Lymansk and Bakhmutsk (only on Ugledarsk its activity is relatively lower). In the south, the attacks are concentrated near Rabotino, Zaporozhye region. In the north – near Volchansky, Kharkiv region.
The battle for the key cities of the region in 2024 continues. The Eastern Front remains the most difficult. But, despite this, the Russian army is far from the administrative borders of the Donetsk region. On the broadcasts of Radio Donbass Realia, we constantly analyze what are the weapons stocks and tactics of the aggressor, what weapons are used by Western partners to help Ukraine, and what else can affect the offensive potential of the Kremlin.
Front as of July 29:
Bakhmut. On the northern flank, near Seversk, the Defense Forces repelled the attacks of the aggressor near Sporeny, Verkhnekamensky, Pereezdny, Ivano-Daryevka, and Bondarny. Russian troops continue to attack Chasov Yar, they also stormed from the north of it – in Hryhorovka district. On the southern flank of Bakhmut, the enemy attacked near Kleschievka and Ivanovskogo.
Near Toretsk, the Russian army again tried to advance to New York, Zaliznoe and Pivnychnoe.
Counteroffensive actions of the Armed Forces near Bakhmut began on May 8-10, 2023. Then the 3rd separate assault brigade reported, and the commander of the Ground Forces of Ukraine, Alexander Syrsky, confirmed the withdrawal of Russian forces to a depth of 2 kilometers; according to the data of the 3rd OSHB, then two companies of the Russian 72nd Motorized Rifle Brigade were almost completely destroyed. Further advancement of the Armed Forces took place in the area of Berkhovka (north) and Klyshchievka (south). On September 15-17, after a long counteroffensive campaign, the Defense Forces of Ukraine restored their positions in two important points south of Bakhmut: Klyshchievka and Andreevka. From this moment, the Russian army went on the offensive on both the northern and southern flanks of Bakhmut.
Western region of Donetsk. The Pokrovsky direction remains the hottest: the Russian army stormed the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine 52 times in the past day in the areas of Vozdvizhenka, Ivanovka, Zeleny Polya, Timofeevka, Sergeevka, Novoselovka Pervoya, Novoaleksandrovka, Zhelannogo, Yasnobrodovka, Progress, Kalinovo. The General Staff noted that the greatest concentration of enemy forces is near Zhelany and Novoaleksandrovka.
DeepState reports that the aggressor managed to advance near Zhelany and Novoaleksandrovka last weekend: the aggressor is expanding the so-called Ocheretinsky salient from both sides. Analysts also recorded progress in the area of Vesely, Umansky and Novoselovka Pervoya (also “Ocheretinsky ledge”); Krasnohorovka and Vodyanogo (Maryinsky district).
In the Kurakhovsky direction, the Defense Forces repelled attacks near Krasnohorovka, Georgievka, and Paraskovievka.
Lyman-Kremennaya-Kupyansk. In the Kupyan area, two armed clashes took place near Novoosynovo and Synkovka, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports. On Limansk, the enemy attacked nearby Makeevka, Nevsky, Novosergeevka, Ternov, Novosadovo and Torskogo 14 times.
In the south of Donetsk region Ukrainian defenders repelled 5 stormtroopers of Russian troops in the area of Velika Novoselka, Konstantinovka, and Razdolny.
In this area, during June 10-12, the Defense Forces of Ukraine liberated Neskuchnoe, Blagodatnoe, Storozhevoe, and Makarovka, as well as Novodarovka and Levadnoe (in the Zaporozhye region, but close to this section of the front). On July 27, the Defense Forces liberated Staromayorskoye, on August 16, the General Staff confirmed the deoccupation of Urozhany. August 23 – Rabotino, in the depths of the Zaporozhye region from the administrative border with Donetsk. The Russian Federation is trying to counterattack.
Data from the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, the DeepState project
The main thing is about the counteroffensive of the Ukrainian army
in Donetsk region:
During September 2022, the Ukrainian army significantly advanced the front in the region. Svyatogorsk was the first to be liberated on September 12. October 1 – Lyman, where presumably part of the Russian troops was surrounded. Today, the front in this area runs along the Dybrova-Ploschanka line and further north, to the Luhansk and Kharkiv regions.
In total, during the counterattack of the Ukrainian army from September 6 to 12, at least 300 settlements were liberated (most of them in the Kharkiv region, among them Izyum, a large logistics hub that was used by the Russian army for attacks on the Donbass).
On October 24, the Armed Forces of Ukraine, advancing into the Luhansk region, also liberated the village of Novosadovo in the Donetsk region. Thus, the front line in the north of the region (the junction of Kharkiv, Luhansk, and Donetsk regions) retreated even more. In this place, analysts call Svatovo in the Luhansk region the most likely direction of movement, but Russia has also strengthened its positions there after the withdrawal of troops from Kherson.
in the Luhansk region:
On November 14, the head of the Luhansk OVA Serhiy Gaidai reported that the Defense Forces had liberated 12 settlements in the region. Neither the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, nor the military-civilian administration announced the entire list, but Gaidai indicated that Belogorovka and Makeevka were among them.
On October 24, the Ukrainian Armed Forces liberated the villages of Karmazinovka, Myasozharovka, and Nevsky; before that – 6 settlements of Luhansk region on the border with Kharkiv: Novolyubovka, Grekovka, Novoegorovka, Andreevka, Stelmakhovka and Nadia.
On September 20, for the first time during the counteroffensive, the General Staff confirmed the actions of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in the Luhansk region: in the Novoaidara and Svatovo regions, the areas of concentration of manpower, weapons and military equipment of the Russian Federation were hit.
Chronicle of the occupation of the Luhansk region before the start of the counterattack of Ukraine
The General Staff announced the withdrawal of the defense forces from the last city of Luhansk Region. Lysychanska, July 3. In the Belogorovka district, the aggressor managed to force Seversky Donets these days. He had been asking to lead the crossing since April (the pontoon crossing was destroyed several times by the Ukrainian army, the losses of the Russian Federation amounted, according to ISW calculations, to a significant part of the armored vehicles of at least one battalion tactical group).
At the end of June, the Ukrainian army withdrew from Severodonetskas well as from the fortified area Zolotoe-Gorskoewhich the Russian Federation tried to take for 4 months and eventually bypassed the flanks.
She was captured on May 18 KremennayaMay 12 – Boundary.
On May 7-8, the Ukrainian army retreated Popasnoy. Russia tried to take these cities for more than a month.
In the first days of the full-scale invasion, the Russian army captured the north of the Luhansk region – Starobelsk, Belokurakino, Novopskov, Belolutsk, Belovodsk, Melovoye, Markovka. These are agricultural areas that in the last 8 years were located in the far rear of the controlled territory of the Luhansk region. There were no fights there in 2014. In the first weeks of the large-scale invasion, public rallies against the Russian troops took place there, then the resistance was suppressed.
Chronicle of the defense of Mariupol
Sergey Volynsky, Denys Prokopenko, Svyatoslav Palamar, Ekaterina Polishchuk returned home. On the evening of September 21, 215 Ukrainian soldiers were released from Russian captivity. Among them are 108 soldiers of the “Azov” regiment. The rest are soldiers of the National Guard, TRO, Border Guard Service, Police, Marines. Ukrainian defenders were returned in exchange of prisoners: Russia gave 200 people for Viktor Medvedchuk, the politician and godfather of Vladimir Putin arrested in Ukraine. And another 15 – for 55 Russian prisoners of war. Five Ukrainian commanders are in Turkey under the personal guarantees of protection and safety of Erdogan – this is the so-called extraction procedure. On October 17, as part of the home exchange, 37 women from “Azovstal” also returned (a total of 108 liberated, military and civilian women).
On July 29, Russia announced the death of captive defenders of Azovstal in the colony in Olenovka. According to the aggressor, Ukraine struck the barracks with prisoners from the HIMARS MLRS; Ukraine denies it and calls it punishment; and ISW experts, having analyzed numerous videos published by the Russians from Olenovka, note that the damage there is not similar to a HIMARS strike, as there was a large fire inside the premises. Radio Donbass Realii studied all the tg and vk groups of settlements near Olenovka and found no evidence that there was any shelling on the night of July 29 at all. Here is more about the tragedy and its possible goals:
On June 20, a prisoner exchange took place between Ukraine and Russia: 144 soldiers were released from captivity, of which 95 were defenders of “Azovstal”.
In total, about 2,500 defenders of Mariupol (36th Marine Brigade, “Azov”, National Guard, police, border guards, terror defense) left Azovstal on May 16-20. They are in captivity in Russia or in the territories occupied by it. “Thank you to the whole world and thank you to Ukraine for the support. We will see each other,” said the deputy commander of the “Azov” regiment Svyatoslav Palamar (“Kalyna”) on the evening of May 19, when he was still on the territory of the plant.
The assault and shelling of the plant from the air continued for more than a month, almost without interruption. The commander of the 36th separate marine infantry brigade of the Ukrainian Navy, Serhiy Volynskyi, and the deputy commander of Azov, Denys Prokopenko, all this time called on the peace to help with the evacuation of the wounded soldiers who were under siege. The fighters emphasized that the wounded are dying in the environment, including from gangrene: there are no antibiotics, anesthesia, and not enough surgical instruments. Mediation in the extraction procedure (exit through a third country) was offered by Turkey.
Before the military, the Russian army released civilians from the factory. They were filtered, and most of them (there is no certainty that all) left for the territory controlled by Ukraine. So, during the evacuation, a 4-year-old girl was separated from her mother, who was sent to a Russian filtration camp. The Service for Children's Affairs of the Zaporizhia region says that this is the 36th case when children under the age of 14 arrived alone, without their parents, during the evacuation to Zaporizhia.
According to the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, while holding positions on “Azovstal”, the military did not allow the enemy to transfer the grouping numbering 17 battalion tactical groups (about 20 thousand personnel) to other directions. British intelligence reported that the Ukrainian defense of Mariupol exhausted Russian units and reduced their combat effectiveness.
According to the Mariupol mayor's office, about 100,000 civilians remain in the city, and another 50 in the surrounding villages. The mayor's office warns of the threat of deadly epidemics in the city due to the lack of drinking water, medicines and unsanitary conditions, and is already talking about the first cases of cholera. The Scheme project had already discovered 4 mass graves of dead residents of Mariupol on Maxar Technologies satellite images: in Vynogradny, Stary Krym, Mangushe and near the Mariupol cemetery.
Why is this “battle for Donbass”. Russia's aggression in eastern Ukraine began in 2014, and from 2016-17 it went into a frozen phase; part of the regions was under occupation, including the regional centers of Donetsk and Luhansk. After the full-scale invasion of Russia into Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the aggressor's troops managed to capture, in addition to ORDLO, almost the entire Luhansk region, Volnovakha, Mariupol, Liman. Western intelligence and the Ukrainian command, after the defeat of Russian troops near Kiev and, in fact, the failure of a large-scale operation within the boundaries of Ukraine, predicted that the Kremlin would pull all its forces to the east and launch a powerful offensive there. And so it happened. The local authorities of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions called on the entire civilian population to temporarily leave the region, including because there is no heating there. Most people did. Some civilians still remained.